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With the lifecycle of Treakisym extended through the in-licensing of liquid formulations from Eagle in 2017, SymBio is refining its plans to establish its own salesforce to market Treakisym (and other drugs) in Japan. While the company has not yet made a final decision, we think it is highly likely to move to self-commercialisation in order to improve operating margins after its marketing arrangement with Eisai expires. Therefore, we now model self-commercialisation in our base-case valuation. This more than offsets the later anticipated filing date for rigosertib iv and lower peak penetration for Treakisym in first-line non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma and lifts our valuation to ¥23.8bn.

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