Wacker Neuson — Improving prospects in key end-markets

Wacker Neuson — Improving prospects in key end-markets

Following a weak FY16, Wacker Neuson (WAC) returned to its profitable growth path in 9M17, with sales up 12.7% y-o-y and adjusted EBIT margin up 300bp y-o-y to 9.5%. This was driven by the upturn in both construction and agricultural machinery markets. Management raised its FY17 sales guidance to the upper end of €1,450-1,500m from €1,400-1,450m in March. Solid balance sheet headroom (net debt/EBITDA FY17e at 0.9x) allows for further investments into extending WAC’s global reach (medium-term target of 40% sales outside Europe vs 25% in FY16). The shares are trading on a FY17e P/E of 20.7x, implying a c 18% discount to the peer average.

Milosz Papst

Written by

Milosz Papst

Director, Financials

Wacker Neuson

Improving prospects in key end-markets

Industrials

QuickView

22 November 2017

Price

€28.18

Market cap

€1,977m

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Share details

Code

WAC

Listing

XETRA

Shares in issue

70.1m

Business description

Wacker Neuson Group is a leading international manufacturer of light and compact equipment for professional users in construction, gardening, landscaping and agriculture, as well as municipal bodies/companies in industries such as recycling, energy and rail transport.

Bull

Expected upturn in the construction and agriculture machinery sector.

New strategic collaborations and alliances with key customers.

Ramp-up of skid steer loaders production in US.

Bear

Oil & gas market environment remains tough.

Currency headwinds from strong EUR/USD.

Residential market slowdown in Germany.

Analyst

Milosz Papst

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Following a weak FY16, Wacker Neuson (WAC) returned to its profitable growth path in 9M17, with sales up 12.7% y-o-y and adjusted EBIT margin up 300bp y-o-y to 9.5%. This was driven by the upturn in both construction and agricultural machinery markets. Management raised its FY17 sales guidance to the upper end of €1,450-1,500m from €1,400-1,450m in March. Solid balance sheet headroom (net debt/EBITDA FY17e at 0.9x) allows for further investments into extending WAC’s global reach (medium-term target of 40% sales outside Europe vs 25% in FY16). The shares are trading on a FY17e P/E of 20.7x, implying a c 18% discount to the peer average.

Europe and Americas driving results

WAC posted solid 9M17 results, with EPS growing by 55% y-o-y to €1.01 and sales improving by 12.7% y-o-y to €1,142.4m. Sales in Europe (73% of group revenues in 9M17) rose by 9.7% y-o-y supported by favourable trends in the construction industry, as well as a major demand revival in the agricultural machinery sector. Americas sales increased by 25.8% y-o-y to €273.1m on the back of good momentum in compact equipment, including the contribution from production ramp-up of skid steer loaders in US. Total adjusted EBIT margin reached 9.5% (up 300bp) supported by higher capacity utilisation, growth within the margin-attractive light equipment segment and cost improvements.

Recovery in global construction machinery ahead

Revised guidance for FY17 implies revenues at the upper end of €1,450m-1,500m (vs. €1,400m-€1,450m in March) and adjusted EBIT margin at the upper end of the 7.5% to 8.5% range. WAC’s results should be supported by the expected recovery in global construction machinery sales, which could achieve a 2016-2020 CAGR of 5.7% in volume terms according to Off-Highway Research. Demand for agricultural equipment should be helped by high investment appetite among landholders (eg in Germany), coupled with the below-average dealer inventory in Europe. WAC’s mid-term guidance is for sales of >€2.0bn and EBIT margin of >9%. Stronger collaboration with key customers (eg John Deere) should be an additional driver.

Valuation: Discount amid muted market expectations

WAC’s shares are currently trading at a FY17e P/E of 20.7x, which represents a c 18% discount to the peer average. However, the multiple moves to a c 15% premium in FY18, as consensus suggests only limited EPS growth next year.

Consensus estimates

Year
end

Revenue
(€m)

PBT
(€m)

EPS
(€)

DPS
(€)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/15

1,375.3

97.2

0.81

0.50

34.8

1.8

12/16

1,361.4

81.8

0.94

0.50

30.0

1.8

12/17e

1,507.0

146.6

1.36

0.69

20.7

2.5

12/18e

1,601.0

144.0

1.42

0.62

19.8

2.3

Source: Wacker Neuson accounts, Bloomberg consensus

EDISON QUICKVIEWS ARE NORMALLY ONE OFF PUBLICATIONS WITH NO COMMITMENT TO WRITING ANY FOLLOW UP. QUICKVIEW NOTES USE CONSENSUS EARNINGS ESTIMATES.

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Disclaimer

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

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Copyright 2017 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Investments Pty Ltd (Corporate Authorised Representative (ACH 161 453 872) of Myonlineadvisers Pty Ltd (AFSL: 427484) and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison's solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are "wholesale clients" for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document.
A marketing communication under FCA rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a "personalised service" and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a "class service" provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited ("FTSE") (c) FTSE [2014]. "FTSE(r)" is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE's express written consent.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Stride Gaming — Scale drives core growth

Stride reported net gaming revenue (NGR) growth of 18% to £89.9m in FY17, driven by an impressive 39% organic growth in the core real money gaming (RMG). Adjusted EBITDA of £20.2m was slightly above our recently raised estimates. Stride has invested heavily in technology and operational leverage should kick in as acquired customers migrate to the higher-margin proprietary platform. A small investment into the Indian rummy market could also lead to diversified revenue growth. Strong cash flow and £17.4m net cash leaves the company well positioned to pay the final Tarco earnout. The stock trades at CY18e 8.2x EV/EBITDA and 12.0x P/E, slightly below peer group averages. Profitability in the core business should offset potential investment losses and our estimates remain largely unchanged.

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