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10 November 2016

Trump’s double surprise.

It is quite clear that in the days leading up to the U.S. Presidential election, both markets and surveys got it wrong. Traditional polling once again failed to spot the depth of support for radical political change. This was after all the U.S., which has delivered the strongest post-crisis economic performance of any developed nation. 

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RSS - Strategic Insight
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*Multiple Sectors
31/01/2019
Equity strategy and market outlook

In this month’s strategy piece, Alastair George believes that investors should avoid the temptation to sit back and spectate in Q119 as a prudent degree of risk-taking may be a better strategy. Valuations now offer a more attractive entry point for both developed and emerging equities while US monetary policy has largely normalised and US interest rate increases are now on pause. For US/China trade, a truce in 2019 could clear the way for Trump’s re-election in 2020 while in the UK, the chances of a delay or revocation of Article 50 are rising faster than that of a chaotic no-deal Brexit. Sharply declining survey data and continuing profits downgrades (even if profits growth still remains positive) are, however, two key counter points to the bullish argument. Nevertheless, a major slowdown in 2019 remains less probable than a soft landing at this point and global equity allocations should be at least at neutral rather than cautious, in his view. The strategy report was originally published on 17 January and has been updated to reflect recent market developments.

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