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Greggs (LSE: GRG)

Last close As at 17/04/2024

GBP27.32

▲ −6.00 (−0.22%)

Market capitalisation

GBP2,794m

With 2,473 shops and 12 manufacturing and distribution centres, Greggs is the leading UK ‘food-on-the-go’ retailer. It uses vertical integration to offer differentiated products at competitive prices. Its ambition is to grow revenue to £2.4bn by FY26.

Greggs’ ambition to double revenue by FY26 has four key growth drivers: growing and developing the estate; leveraging digital channels; extending trading hours to the evening; and broadening customer appeal and driving loyalty. All will be enabled by higher investment in the supply chain and systems.

Latest Insights

View More

Consumer | Outlook

Greggs — Showing us how it’s done

Consumer | edison tv

Greggs – executive interview

Consumer | Update

Greggs — A strong finish to FY23

Consumer | Update

Greggs — FY23 profit expectations reiterated
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Sector

Consumer

Equity Analyst

Russell Pointon

Russell Pointon

Director, Consumer

Milo Bussell

Associate Analyst, Consumer and Media

Key Management

  • Richard Hutton

    FD

  • Roisin Currie

    CEO

Balance Sheet

Forecast net cash (£m)

195.3

Forecast gearing ratio (%)

N/A

Share Price Performance

Price Performance
% 1M 3M 12M
Actual (3.9) 3.5 (2.7)
Relative (5.1) (1.4) (2.5)
52 week high/low 2904.0p/2282.0p

Financials

The second full year of Greggs’ five-year growth plan to double revenue by FY26 should be marked down as very successful, especially so given the challenging external environment. Unlike many consumer-facing companies, high selling price inflation was accompanied by volume growth, leading to good market share gains. The consumer is responding well to new initiatives to grow revenue in new dayparts and digital channels. Profitability was well-managed with better recovery of input cost inflation than FY22. We look for more of the same in FY24, which will be a significant year from a capital investment perspective, and beyond.

Y/E Dec Revenue (£m) EBITDA (£m) PBT (£m) EPS (fd) (p) P/E (x) P/CF (x)
2021A 1229.7 259.0 145.6 114.3 23.9 8.9
2022A 1512.8 269.9 148.3 117.5 23.3 10.2
2023E 1809.6 299.2 167.7 123.9 22.1 8.3
2024E 2013.6 344.5 182.8 131.1 20.8 7.7

Research

edison tv

Consumer

Greggs – executive interview

Update

Consumer

Greggs — A strong finish to FY23

Consumer

Outlook

Greggs — Showing us how it’s done

Update

Consumer

Greggs — FY23 profit expectations reiterated

Update

Consumer

Greggs — Improving outlook for costs in FY23

Update

Consumer

Greggs — Continuation of strong trading in FY23

edison tv

Consumer

Greggs – executive interview

Outlook

Consumer

Greggs — Profits on the go

Update

Consumer

Greggs plc — Eye-catching revenue growth

Update

Consumer

Greggs plc — A ‘relative winner’

Update

Consumer

Greggs plc — Strong H122 trading and progress on strategy
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Further insights

insight

Consumer

The UK restaurant market

Analyst of the week

Russell Pointon

Russell Pointon

Director, Consumer

rpointon@edisongroup.com 020 3077 5700
Read latest

Thematics

thematic

Consumer

ConsumerWatch – At least someone loves me

thematic

Consumer

Deutsches Eigenkapitalforum (EKF) 2023 consumer and media

thematic

Consumer

ConsumerWatch – Falling into the fall

thematic

Consumer

ConsumerWatch – Making the most of the summer
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