SIGA Technologies (NASDAQ: SIGA)

Last close As at 27/03/2024

USD8.50

0.18 (2.16%)

Market capitalisation

USD592m

SIGA Technologies is a commercial-stage health security company focused on the treatment of smallpox and other orthopoxvirus. It has contracts with both the US and Canadian governments for TPOXX, its treatment for smallpox, and is expanding internationally.

With c 64,000 global cases and 23,000 cases in the US, mpox remains a growing concern for governments and health agencies. SIGA’s antiviral product TPOXX is the leading therapeutic, originally designed to treat smallpox. TPOXX was approved by the US FDA for smallpox and is now available to treat mpox through the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s expanded access investigational new drug protocol. Currently, it is the only allowed therapy for all orthopoxvirus pathogens, including mpox, approved in both the UK and the EU.

Latest Insights

View More

Healthcare | Update

SIGA Technologies — Onwards and upwards with strong FY23

Healthcare | Flash note

SIGA Technologies — New captain to steer the ship

Sector

Healthcare

Equity Analyst

Soo Romanoff

Soo Romanoff

Managing Director - Head of Content, Healthcare

Nidhi Singh

Nidhi Singh

Analyst

Arron Aatkar

Associate analyst

Jyoti Prakash

Jyoti Prakash

Analyst, Healthcare

Key Management

  • Daniel Luckshire

    Executive VP and CFO

  • Diem Nguyen

    CEO

Balance Sheet

Forecast net cash (US$m)

166.6

Forecast gearing ratio (%)

N/A

Share Price Performance

Price Performance
% 1M 3M 12M
Actual 59.4 50.5 44.9
Relative 55.3 38.1 10.6
52 week high/low US$8.9/US$4.3

Financials

SIGA Technologies has delivered its best top-line performance in the last five years, supported by a late surge in TPOXX deliveries across both domestic and international markets. FY23 product revenues grew 50.8% to $130.7m, driven by Q423 BARDA deliveries and international orders, resulting in overall revenues increasing to $139.9m (+26.3% y-o-y). Barring packaging-related bottlenecks, which delayed some deliveries to Q124, there could have been incremental upside to meet our $172.6m revenue estimate. The strong cash flow generation and healthy balance sheet (year-end net cash balance of $150.1m) was reflected in the company’s declaration of a special cash dividend of $0.6/share ($42.7m total; >60% payout ratio). Given sales visibility on further BARDA stockpile replenishments and increasing international market traction, we expect FY24 to be another strong year. We revise our FY24 estimates and now expect PEP and pediatric launches in 2026 (2025 previously), resulting in our valuation adjusting to $16.51/share (versus $17.24/share previously).

Y/E Dec Revenue (US$m) EBITDA (US$m) PBT (US$m) EPS (fd) (c) P/E (x) P/CF (x)
2022A 110.8 43.2 43.7 45.56 18.7 14.9
2023A 139.9 84.2 87.8 94.96 9.0 6.4
2024E 190.6 104.4 108.4 122.41 6.9 10.2
2025E 169.3 96.3 100.7 118.95 7.1 8.0

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