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AVAX (ASE: AVAX)

Last close As at 22/04/2024

EUR1.44

▲ 0.05 (3.60%)

Market capitalisation

EUR214m

Based in Greece, AVAX operates through three main segments: construction, concessions and real estate and marinas, with a large international footprint. The largest segment, construction, is involved in large-scale private and public works, with unique experience among its peers, in energy infrastructure and subway construction.

The Greek construction market is worth around €7.5bn and can be split into two distinct sectors, housebuilding (c 30%) and civil engineering (c 70% non-residential construction, including commercial and infrastructure projects), including both private and public works. According to ELSTAT, overall average construction activity fell by just 9.5% in 2020, before increasing 7% in 2021 and 24.4% in 2022, the highest level since 2017 in absolute terms.

Latest Insights

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Industrials | Update

AVAX — Record work-in-hand points to strong growth

Industrials | Flash note

AVAX — Completed divestment from energy sector

Industrials | Flash note

AVAX — Significant international project secured

Industrials | Initiation

AVAX — Building on strong foundations
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Sector

Industrials

Equity Analyst

Natalya Davies

Natalya Davies

Analyst

Andy Murphy

Andy Murphy

Director, Financials & Industrials

Key Management

  • Christos Ioannou

    Executive chairman

Balance Sheet

Forecast net debt (€m)

184.3

Forecast gearing ratio (%)

114

Share Price Performance

Price Performance
% 1M 3M 12M
Actual (6.8) (11.7) 79.3
Relative (6.4) (16.0) 40.3
52 week high/low €1.9/€0.8

Financials

In FY24 we expect a large proportion of AVAX’s recently secured construction projects to commence and consequent substantial revenue to be recognised. We therefore forecast FY24 revenue and adjusted EBITDA increases of 112% and 76% y-o-y to €851m and €90m respectively. As Greek infrastructure investment improves and AVAX executes on its backlog, it could secure an improved rating. It is currently trading on an FY24e P/E of 4.9x, a c 60% discount to peers. With our valuation of AVAX’s concessions portfolio at €433m, €138m above the recognised book value of €295m, and a record work-in-hand level exceeding €3.2bn, there appears to be significant potential for investors. Our fair value stands at €3.2/share, indicating significant upside potential.

Y/E Dec Revenue (€m) EBITDA (€m) PBT (€m) EPS (fd) (c) P/E (x) P/CF (x)
2021A 592.2 51.0 15.7 12.20 12.2 N/A
2022A 402.7 58.2 25.1 13.33 11.2 N/A
2023E 402.2 51.3 19.6 10.82 13.8 N/A
2024E 850.9 90.0 61.4 31.96 4.7 N/A

Research

Flash note

Industrials

AVAX — Completed divestment from energy sector

Flash note

Industrials

AVAX — Significant international project secured

Industrials

Update

AVAX — Record work-in-hand points to strong growth

Initiation

Industrials

AVAX — Building on strong foundations

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