Greggs

Overview
Price performance
Financials
Research
Sector insights
Thematics

With 2,473 shops and 12 manufacturing and distribution centres, Greggs is the leading UK ‘food-on-the-go’ retailer. It uses vertical integration to offer differentiated products at competitive prices. Its ambition is to grow revenue to £2.4bn by FY26.

Greggs’ ambition to double revenue by FY26 has four key growth drivers: growing and developing the estate; leveraging digital channels; extending trading hours to the evening; and broadening customer appeal and driving loyalty. All will be enabled by higher investment in the supply chain and systems.

Latest Insights

Consumer |
Update

14.05.24

Greggs — Encouraging start to FY24

Consumer |
Outlook

02.04.24

Greggs — Showing us how it’s done

Consumer |
edison tv

26.03.24

Greggs – executive interview

Consumer |
Update

11.01.24

Greggs — A strong finish to FY23

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Sector

Consumer

Equity Analyst

Russell Pointon

Director of Content, Consumer and Media

Milo Bussell

Associate Analyst, Consumer and Media

Key Management

Richard Hutton

FD
Roisin Currie

CEO

Balance Sheet

Forecast net cash (£m)

Forecast gearing ratio (%)

N/A

Share Price Performance

Price Performance
%	1M	3M	12M
Actual	0.7	1.7	(2.7)
Relative	(4.3)	(8.3)	(10.3)
52 week high/low	2878.0p/2282.0p

Financials

Greggs’ trading update for the first 19 weeks of the year shows that the company is driving superior revenue growth from its key initiatives of growing space, delivery and evening sales and leveraging the app along with its continuous menu enhancements, despite what has continued to be a challenging backdrop for consumers. The strong revenue growth on top of a tough comparative from the prior year includes both volume and price growth, which compares very well versus many other consumer-facing companies.

Y/E Dec	Revenue (£m)	EBITDA (£m)	PBT (£m)	EPS (fd) (p)	P/E (x)	P/CF (x)
2022A	1512.8	269.9	148.3	117.5	23.6	10.3
2023A	1809.6	299.2	167.7	123.8	22.4	8.4
2024E	2013.6	344.5	182.8	131.1	21.2	7.8
2025E	2230.9	385.0	201.4	144.4	19.2	7.0

Research

Outlook

Consumer

02.04.24