Greggs plc — Growth moderates, but strategy on plan

Greggs (LSE: GRG)

Last close As at 28/03/2024

GBP28.60

30.00 (1.06%)

Market capitalisation

GBP2,894m

More on this equity

Research: Consumer

Greggs plc — Growth moderates, but strategy on plan

Greggs’ management has been open in recognising that despite the Beast from the East and other extraordinary weather patterns, there is an underlying softening of demand. We have reduced forecasts, but see earnings growth continuing from a combination of like-for-like sales, shop expansion, and investment in the estate and manufacturing and fulfilment infrastructure. Greggs’ value positioning should place it well in a tight consumer market, and at these levels the valuation is attractive.

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Consumer

Greggs

Growth moderates, but strategy on plan

AGM trading statement

Retail

10 May 2018

Price

1,076p

Market cap

£1,091m

Net cash (£m) at December 2017

54.5

Shares in issue

101.2m

Free float

100%

Code

GRG

Primary exchange

LSE

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(13.4)

(15.2)

(0.5)

Rel (local)

(18.6)

(21.4)

(4.7)

52-week high/low

1399.0p

1056.0p

Business description

With nearly 1,900 shops, nine manufacturing centres and 22,000 employees, Greggs is a leading UK ‘food-on-the-go’ retailer. It utilises vertical integration to offer differentiated products at competitive prices

Next events

Interim results

31 July 2018

Analysts

Paul Hickman

+44 (0)20 3681 2501

Kate Heseltine

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Greggs is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Greggs’ management has been open in recognising that despite the Beast from the East and other extraordinary weather patterns, there is an underlying softening of demand. We have reduced forecasts, but see earnings growth continuing from a combination of like-for-like sales, shop expansion, and investment in the estate and manufacturing and fulfilment infrastructure. Greggs’ value positioning should place it well in a tight consumer market, and at these levels the valuation is attractive.

Year end

Revenue (£m)

PBT*
(£m)

EPS*
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/16

894.2

80.3

62.0

31.0

17.4

2.9

12/17

960.0

81.8

64.5

32.3

16.7

3.0

12/18e

1,012.2

81.9

63.7

31.8

16.9

3.0

12/19e

1,083.6

83.8

65.9

32.9

16.4

3.1

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

18-week trading: Spring storms mask weaker demand

Eighteen-week sales were +4.7% year-on-year, and managed like-for-like sales +1.3%. Against +6.2% and +3.2% respectively at eight weeks, that implies intervening declines, with lower transaction numbers despite higher average spend. It is no surprise that extreme March and April conditions affected trading, with footfall down across the retail sector. Management estimates that weather affected the period by up to 1%, implying that ex-weather, like-for-like growth would have been c 2%. That is not a bad result, although it does imply some overall demand flattening.

Openings and manufacturing consolidation on plan

Like-for-like sales are back in growth in the first days of May, and the strategy is on track. Net openings of 29 stores are comparable with the 28 at 19 weeks last year, although the back-ended openings phasing is likely to be more pronounced in 2018. The manufacturing consolidation process is going to plan.

Forecasts: We build in caution on sales and openings

Management is now more cautious in its outlook, and we reduce our forecast like-for-like sales growth assumption for H218 from 1% to 0.5%. We also cut our net openings forecast from 120 to 110 with later phasing. Our 2018 PBT forecast of £81.9m represents a 4% downgrade. In 2019 we soften forecast like-for-like sales growth from 2% to 1.5% which, on the lower base for a full year, means that we downgrade PBT by 8%. By 2020 we forecast a return to more normal PBT growth of 8%.

Valuation: EV/EBITDA discount looks unsustainable

Our blended valuation of 1,360p is around c 5% down on our previous 1,436p, with reductions in our DCF valuation compensated by increases in the market rating of peers since March 2018. It is notable that Greggs trades on a 2019e EV/EBITDA multiple of only 6.6x, compared with peers at 11.6x, a level of discount that looks unsustainable for any length of time. Meanwhile, 2018 year-end net cash, which we forecast at £35.7m, underpins the 3% yield.

18-week trading: Spring storms mask softer demand

At 18 weeks, total sales were up 4.7% year-on-year, with like-for-like sales in managed shops up 1.3%. That compares with eight-week growth reported with preliminary results, of 6.2% and 3.2% respectively. By implication, the intervening 10 weeks saw actual declines. Those were the product of lower transaction numbers despite higher average spend per transaction.

It is hardly a surprise that unseasonal weather conditions in March and April affected trading, with some shops actually unable to open in the worst days. The so-called Beast from the East, combined with Storm Emma in early March and the “mini Beast from the East” in mid-March, affected retail as a whole in the month, with total retail footfall down 6% year-on-year, according to data from the BRC-KPMG monitor quoted in the press. April comparative sales were affected by the early date of Easter and by variable weather, but underlying consumer weakness also appears to have been an element in the BRC’s like-for-like, year-on-year sales decline of 4.2% for the month.

Although such analysis can never be precise, management estimates that adverse weather affected the 18-week numbers by up to 1%, implying that ex-weather, like-for-like growth would have been c 2%. That is not a bad result, although it does imply some overall flattening in demand growth. Notable areas of growth nonetheless have been innovative ranges such as the £2 breakfast offer, hot food products and healthier options such as salads and dips.

Estate strategy: Progress similar to a year ago

Net openings of 29 stores are comparable with the 19-week position of 28 last year. Then, openings were significantly back-ended, and that is likely to be more pronounced in 2018:

Exhibit 1: Shop openings and closures

2017
week 19

2017
FY

2018
week 18

2018
FY guidance

Managed openings

22

86

27

90-100

Franchised openings

20

45

14

70

Total openings

42

131

41

160-170

Closures

(14)

(41)

(12)

(40-50)

Net openings

28

90

29

110-130

Source: Greggs

Greggs is reaching out into new locations, with recent openings in Westminster tube station, Birmingham New Street station, Glasgow Buchanan bus terminal and East Midlands airport. Such locations are part of a deliberate strategy to move up to 40% of the estate away from the high street in the medium term, providing insulation from secular declines and a more direct connection to customers whose lifestyles fit the on-the-go model. The strategy does mean that increased numbers of openings are dependent on third parties such as Euro Garages, where Greggs already has 125 franchised units. This does increase the risk around openings and management is indicating that it may be more realistic to expect net openings at the lower end of its guidance range.

Supply chain investment programme: Well on plan

2018 is the peak year for investment in the project to consolidate manufacturing operations in Greggs’ nine centres and extend distribution capacity. Progress is on plan, with work underway in Leeds, Newcastle and Manchester. Planning is also well advanced for work commencing in H2 at other sites. The quality of production from new manufacturing lines now operational in Glasgow and Leeds has been excellent.

Forecasts: We build in more caution on sales and openings

Exhibit 2: Changes to forecasts

EPS (p)

PBT (£m)

EBITDA (£m)

Old

New

% chg.

% growth

Old

New

% chg.

% growth

Old

New

% chg.

% growth

2018e

66.5

63.7

(4.2)

(1.2)

85.5

81.9

(4.2)

1.3%

142.0

138.3

(2.6)

2.0

2019e

71.6

65.9

(8.0)

3.5

91.0

83.8

(8.0)

2.4%

153.3

146.1

(4.7)

5.6

2020e

77.8

72.1

(7.4)

9.3

98.1

90.8

(7.5)

8.3%

164.0

156.7

(4.5)

7.3

Source: Edison Investment Research

Sales in the first five days have been stronger than over the entire March to April period. However, that is likely to have been a function of the equally unusual warm weather, which in any case is too short a period on which to base expectations. We are therefore reducing our forecast like-for-like sales growth assumption for the second half from 1% to 0.5%. We also reduce our forecast net openings from 120 to 110, and assume that the shape of openings will be phased later in the year.

Management has not changed its view of the cost environment in 2018. Inflationary pressures are starting to ease in line with expectations of ingredient inflation at 3-4% compared with 6.5% in 2017. People costs are expected to rise by 3.6% against 3.1% in 2017, including the impact of the National Living Wage, while workplace pension costs are expected to bring a slight increase compared with the 2017 impact of the Apprenticeship Levy in 2017. As a result, we continue to estimate that these factors net out to a c 0.5% cost benefit for the year as a whole, and we retain our gross margin assumptions.

Our resulting 2018 PBT forecast of £81.9m fits new guidance of profit at around the same level as 2017 representing a 4% downgrade for the year.

For 2019 we also soften our like-for-like sales assumption from 2% to 1.5%. We assume that underlying conditions for the consumer will show little change in the first half at least, but that the extraordinary weather-related weakness of March and April will provide soft comparatives. By the second half of 2019 we assume that consumer pressures will ameliorate slightly, besides which, in a price-conscious environment Greggs’ value offer is likely to benefit on a relative basis. However, the combination of the weaker overall demand environment, now over a full year, and the lower base of sales and of store numbers in 2019, means that our PBT forecast reduces by 8% to £83.8m, representing 2.4% year-on-year growth. By 2020, with the benefits of efficiencies from the supply consolidation process, we forecast a return to more normal PBT growth of 8%. As we also explained in our March outlook note, Value discovery, we believe that Greggs’ brand transformation will take time to be fully reflected in sales terms, meaning that it should have a relatively long and sustained return.

Our forecast of net cash is still substantial, although reduced by £5m to £35.7m, which underpins the 3% yield.

Valuation: EV/EBITDA discount looks unsustainable

We consider valuation on both a DCF and a peer valuation basis. In terms of peers, we take into account a range of multi-site consumer companies. There is no exact peer in the space, although the recent announcement of Whitbread’s intention to spin off Costa provides the conditions for greater investor attention to be focused on the subsector, with a search underway for valuation templates for the new plc.

DCF: Undemanding forecasts

We apply a 6.9% cost of equity based on an assumed risk-free rate of 2%, an equity risk premium of 7% and beta of 0.7. In extending our published forecast to a 10-year cash projection, we assume revenue growth fading from 5% to 2% and EBITDA margin rising from 13.8% to 14.2% between 2020 and 2027, which should be realistically achievable on the strategy of increased scale combined with business efficiencies. We have reduced our near-term free cash flow forecast to more fully reflect project capex.

As a result of these assumptions, we define a valuation of 1,265p per share (previously 1,536p). Varying the discount and terminal growth assumptions would affect the valuation as follows:

Exhibit 3: Sensitivity of valuation to discount rate and terminal growth rate

Discount rate (%)

Terminal growth (%)

5.0%

5.0%

6.9%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

1.0%

1,680

1,680

1,119

935

813

718

1.5%

1,857

1,857

1,186

978

842

739

2.0%

2,093

2,093

1,265

1,027

876

763

2.5%

2,424

2,424

1,363

1,086

915

791

3.0%

2,921

2,921

1,487

1,156

961

822

Source: Edison Investment Research

Peer comparisons: The discount becomes unsustainable

In terms of peers, we take into account a range of multi-site consumer companies. Although there is no exact peer within the group, we think that in the fast-changing, out-of-home space a range of different offers is as relevant to investors as it is for consumers. Our selection of approximate peers shows a wide range of valuations:

Exhibit 4: Peer comparison

Market cap (local, m)

Year end

Reporting currency

P/E (x)

EV/EBITDA (x)

EV/Sales (x)

Dec-18

Dec-19

Dec-18

Dec-19

Dec-18

Dec-19

Wetherspoon

1,795

07/2017

£

15.9

15.6

9.4

9.2

1.0

1.0

SSP Group

3,376

09/2017

£

27.6

25.0

11.6

10.8

1.3

1.2

Marston's

1,885

09/2017

£

7.5

7.2

9.2

8.9

1.8

1.7

Patisserie Holdings

452

09/2017

£

23.6

21.6

14.7

13.5

3.5

3.2

McColl's

315

11/2017

£

11.6

10.2

8.2

7.4

0.3

0.2

Dunkin' Brands

6,956

12/2017

US$

23.8

21.8

17.6

16.5

*

*

Domino's Pizza

1,733

12/2017

£

22.0

19.8

16.4

14.8

*

*

Average

18.9

17.3

12.4

11.6

1.6

1.5

Greggs

1,076

12/2016

£

16.2

15.0

7.2

6.6

0.9

0.9

Premium/(discount)

(14.0%)

(13.2%)

(42.3%)

(42.9%)

(40.1%)

(39.6%)

Source: Bloomberg, Edison. Note: *Non-comparable as franchised revenue: excluded. Annualised to December. Prices as at 9 May 2018.

Following the lower profit guidance, Greggs’ shares trade at a discount of c 14% to the group on a P/E basis, and c 40% on an EV/EBITDA and EV/Sales basis, although arguably the latter is distorted by the outlying sales multiple of Patisserie Holdings, without which it would be c 15%. It is notable that Greggs trades on a 2019e EV/EBITDA multiple of only 6.6x, compared with peers at 11.6%, suggesting that the market is not recognising the value in this near-cash forecast. We suggest that this discount is unlikely to be sustained for any length of time.

Adjusting to peer group averages for both forecast years would produce a valuation of 1,172p on a P/E basis, and 1,741p on an EV/EBITDA basis. These in turn average to 1,456p. This is 9% higher than our previous valuation of 1,335p in March 2018, which is principally the result of higher market ratings, although the exit of Conviviality Retail has a 4% effect on the peer valuation average.

On a blend of DCF and peer-comparison metrics, we derive a valuation of 1,360p (previously 1,436p).

Exhibit 5: Financial summary

£m

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018e

2019e

2020e

Dec

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

762.4

806.1

835.7

894.2

960.0

1,012.2

1,083.6

1,153.1

Cost of Sales

(305.9)

(304.8)

(305.1)

(324.3)

(348.1)

(367.0)

(392.9)

(416.9)

Gross Profit

456.5

501.3

530.6

569.9

611.9

645.2

690.7

736.1

EBITDA

 

 

74.9

95.6

113.3

125.9

135.7

138.3

146.1

156.7

Operating Profit (before amort. and except.)

41.5

58.1

73.1

80.3

82.2

82.1

83.6

90.6

Intangible Amortisation

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Exceptionals

(8.1)

(8.5)

0.0

(5.2)

(9.9)

(6.0)

(3.8)

(3.0)

Other

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Operating Profit

33.4

49.6

73.1

75.2

72.3

76.1

79.8

87.6

Net Interest

(0.2)

0.2

(0.1)

(0.0)

(0.4)

(0.2)

0.2

0.2

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

41.3

58.3

73.0

80.3

81.8

81.9

83.8

90.8

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

33.2

49.7

73.0

75.1

71.9

75.9

80.0

87.8

Tax

(10.3)

(14.0)

(15.4)

(18.1)

(16.9)

(17.4)

(17.6)

(18.4)

Profit After Tax (norm)

30.9

44.3

57.6

62.3

64.9

64.5

66.2

72.4

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

24.2

37.6

57.6

58.0

56.9

59.7

63.2

70.0

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

100.4

100.5

100.6

100.4

100.6

101.2

100.4

100.4

EPS - normalised (p)

 

 

30.8

44.0

57.3

62.0

64.5

63.7

65.9

72.1

EPS - (IFRS) (p)

 

 

24.1

37.4

57.3

57.7

56.5

59.0

62.9

69.7

Dividend per share (p)

19.5

22.0

28.6

31.0

32.3

31.8

32.9

36.0

Gross Margin (%)

59.9

62.2

63.5

63.7

63.7

63.7

63.7

63.8

EBITDA Margin (%)

9.8

11.9

13.6

14.1

14.1

13.7

13.5

13.6

Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)

5.4

7.2

8.7

9.0

8.6

8.1

7.7

7.9

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

268.9

267.4

298.2

323.4

334.7

373.4

405.9

417.8

Intangible Assets

1.0

4.7

10.2

14.3

14.7

18.0

20.5

20.6

Tangible Assets

267.8

262.7

284.2

307.4

319.2

354.6

384.7

396.4

Investments

0.1

0.0

3.8

1.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

Current Assets

 

 

65.0

101.5

86.0

92.6

106.6

90.2

93.0

113.0

Stocks

15.4

15.3

15.4

15.9

18.7

19.7

21.0

23.5

Debtors

25.0

26.1

27.6

30.7

33.4

34.7

37.0

39.3

Cash

21.6

43.6

42.9

46.0

54.5

35.7

35.0

50.2

Other

3.0

16.5

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Current Liabilities

 

 

(80.7)

(102.1)

(106.0)

(121.4)

(127.9)

(135.7)

(141.4)

(137.4)

Creditors

(80.7)

(102.1)

(106.0)

(121.4)

(127.9)

(135.7)

(141.4)

(137.4)

Short term borrowings

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(17.0)

(20.1)

(11.9)

(29.9)

(14.0)

(12.9)

(12.8)

(12.7)

Long term borrowings

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Other long term liabilities

(17.0)

(20.1)

(11.9)

(29.9)

(14.0)

(12.9)

(12.8)

(12.7)

Net Assets

 

 

236.2

246.7

266.3

264.7

299.4

314.9

344.8

380.7

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

82.5

108.6

119.6

133.8

134.5

139.4

146.2

146.8

Net Interest

(0.0)

0.2

0.2

0.1

0.2

(0.2)

0.2

0.2

Tax

(13.2)

(11.5)

(15.9)

(16.2)

(17.6)

(16.1)

(16.8)

(17.8)

Capex

(48.6)

(48.3)

(71.8)

(80.1)

(72.6)

(95.0)

(95.0)

(78.0)

Acquisitions/disposals

0.2

(4.8)

18.1

4.7

2.2

(12.5)

(3.5)

(3.0)

Financing

0.9

(2.6)

(7.2)

(8.3)

(6.0)

0.0

(0.0)

(0.0)

Dividends

(19.6)

(19.6)

(43.7)

(30.9)

(32.2)

(34.4)

(31.8)

(33.0)

Net Cash Flow

2.2

22.0

(0.7)

3.0

8.5

(18.8)

(0.7)

15.1

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

(19.4)

(21.6)

(43.6)

(42.9)

(46.0)

(54.5)

(35.7)

(35.0)

HP finance leases initiated

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Other

0.0

(0.0)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

(21.6)

(43.6)

(42.9)

(46.0)

(54.5)

(35.7)

(35.0)

(50.2)

Source: Greggs, Edison Investment Research

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Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2018. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

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Germany

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280 High Holborn

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United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2018 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Greggs and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Myonlineadvisers Pty Ltd (AFSL: 427484)) and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2018. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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