NetScientific — Steady as she goes

NetScientific — Steady as she goes

NetScientific recently announced half-year results for 2018, with incremental progress continuing to be made, although we are yet to see that progress in reported revenues. In May 2018, Wanda, which focuses on digital health, and its partner Health Resource Solutions (HRS), achieved a 46% reduction in hospital readmissions in a high-risk congestive heart failure (CHF) population. In addition, in August ProAxsis announced a CE Mark for a fourth product, the ProteaseTag Active Proteinase 3 immunoassay, which was accompanied by a commercial sale to a large US biotechnology company.

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NetScientific

Steady as she goes

Financial update

Pharma & biotech

19 October 2018

Price

26.90p

Market cap

£21m

US$1.40/£

Net cash (£m) at 30 June 2018

7.1

Shares in issue

78.6m

Free float

20.2%

Code

NSCI

Primary exchange

AIM

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(13.2)

(29.2)

(37.4)

Rel (local)

(9.3)

(22.6)

(33.0)

52-week high/low

73.5p

26.6p

Business description

NetScientific is a healthcare IP commercialisation group with an investment strategy focused on sourcing, funding and commercialising technologies. Its portfolio of four core investments and one material investment is in three main sectors: digital health (Wanda), diagnostics (Vortex, ProAxsis, Glycotest) and therapeutics (PDS Biotechnology).

Next events

Glycotest Series A

H218

Analysts

Maxim Jacobs

+1 646 653 7027

Nathaniel Calloway

+1 646 653 7036

NetScientific is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

NetScientific recently announced half-year results for 2018, with incremental progress continuing to be made, although we are yet to see that progress in reported revenues. In May 2018, Wanda, which focuses on digital health, and its partner Health Resource Solutions (HRS), achieved a 46% reduction in hospital readmissions in a high-risk congestive heart failure (CHF) population. In addition, in August ProAxsis announced a CE Mark for a fourth product, the ProteaseTag Active Proteinase 3 immunoassay, which was accompanied by a commercial sale to a large US biotechnology company.

Year end

Revenue (£m)

PBT*
(£m)

EPS*
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/16

0.5

(12.3)

(20.6)

0.0

N/A

N/A

12/17

0.4

(9.5)

(13.6)

0.0

N/A

N/A

12/18e

0.4

(11.1)

(8.5)

0.0

N/A

N/A

12/19e

2.3

(13.4)

(12.3)

0.0

N/A

N/A

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Wanda reduces readmissions

In conjunction with partner HRS, use of Wanda’s clinical decision support software helped reduce the number of hospital readmissions in a high-risk CHF patient population by 46%. Through continuous monitoring and assessment of patient status, Wanda’s technology allowed for the detection of adverse events up to seven days in advance.

Fourth CE Mark for ProAxsis

Recently, ProAxsis announced that it had received a CE Mark for its ProteaseTag Active Proteinase 3 immunoassay, which was accompanied by a commercial sale to a large US biotechnology company. The company also announced in September that two of its assays had been selected for inclusion in the BRIDGE study, which will investigate 1,000 patients suffering from bronchiectasis over three years.

Catalysts potentially coming in H218

The company is anticipating several continued developments for its investments in H218. Glycotest is expected to close on a $10m Series A fund-raising to help bring its liver cancer panel closer to market. ProAxsis is expected to initiate the development of a number of new immunoassays and continue its commercial momentum. Finally, Wanda is looking to expand its partnership with HRS and to add additional commercial deals.

Valuation: £50.6m or 64p per share

We have reduced our valuation of NetScientific to £50.6m or 64p per share from £67.9m or 86p per share. This is mainly due to a more conservative view of the revenue ramp for ProAxsis, Vortex, Wanda and Glycotest (although peak sales remain the same), as reported revenues were trending lower than anticipated, as well as a lower cash balance. This was partly mitigated by rolling forward our NPVs.

Progress at Wanda and ProAxsis

In May 2018, Wanda and its partner HRS announced that they achieved a 46% reduction in hospital readmissions in a high-risk CHF population. As a reminder, Wanda is a digital health company that has developed a software platform for the management of patients with chronic disease. The Wanda application is a recently patented, integrated solution to improve patient monitoring and provide behavioural modification and ultimately reduce hospitalisations. The company has developed applications to monitor patients for CHF and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD).

The Wanda application collects data from remote monitoring systems and patient self-assessments on mobile devices to monitor disease progression, and uses the company’s proprietary analytics to predict disease risk. The information gathered is automatically leveraged by the application to provide behavioural modifications to the patient, as well as to inform the patient’s physician care team, should intervention be necessary. The ultimate goal of the application is to reduce the number of hospitalisations by providing more timely feedback based on the patient’s status.

The Wanda platform is versatile and, hypothetically, can be employed to monitor a wide variety of chronic diseases. The first module developed for the platform was for the monitoring of patients with CHF. The software integrates the patient’s medical record information with regular blood pressure and weight measurements gathered wirelessly from Bluetooth-enabled devices, as well as self-reported symptom assessments. The system was previously tested utilising a 1,500-person trial performed at UCLA. Wanda has developed a module for the prediction of complications associated with COPD, which comes bundled with the CHF module because of the comorbidity of these two diseases.

Also, ProAxsis announced that it had received a CE mark for its ProteaseTag Active Proteinase 3 immunoassay, which was accompanied by a commercial sale to a large US biotechnology company. As a reminder, ProAxsis was founded in 2013 as a medical diagnostic spinout of Queen’s University Belfast in Northern Ireland. ProAxsis has developed proprietary molecules, called Protease-Tags, which selectively bind to active proteases and can be used in a range of diagnostic and disease monitoring tools.

Active proteases (‘molecular scissors’) play a key role in many physiological processes and are considered important therapeutic targets, as well as being biomarkers of many diseases. They may be unregulated in diseases including cancer, heart disease, stroke, Alzheimer’s disease, rheumatoid arthritis, multiple sclerosis, cystic fibrosis (CF) and COPD. Current assay systems for proteases utilise chromogenic or fluorogenic substrates, are often complex and may not be sufficiently specific to detect the active form of the enzyme. ProAxsis has developed novel and patented Protease-Tags to irreversibly inhibit/trap active proteases. Because they are designed to form a bridge to a solid support via covalent binding, they can be combined with established diagnostic technology platforms such as ELISA, lateral flow or multi-analyte biochips.

The company has also developed a point-of-care test called NEATstik (neutrophil elastase airways test) for routine monitoring of neutrophil elastase (NE). NE is involved in chronic respiratory diseases such as CF and COPD and is an established biomarker of infection and inflammation. NEATstik received a CE mark in September 2017 and is the first-to-market point-of-care NE test in the EU.

Valuation

We have adjusted our valuation of NetScientific to £50.6m or 64p per share from £67.9m or 86p per share. This is mainly due to a more conservative view of the revenue ramp for ProAxsis, Vortex, Wanda and Glycotest (although peak sales remain the same), as reported revenues were trending lower than anticipated, as well as a lower cash balance. We have also made some updates to the ownership stakes. Importantly, we adjusted Glycotest from 87.5% to 67% and Vortex from 95% to 66.1%, which are the fully diluted ownership percentages. This was partly mitigated by rolling forward our NPVs. We expect to update our valuation with the closure of financings for the individual companies. Glycotest, for example, is aiming to close a Series A in H218.

Exhibit 1: Valuation of NetScientific

Portfolio company

Prob. of success

Profitability

Peak sales (£m)

Margin

rNPV (£m)

Ownership

Share Value (£m)

Vortex

15.0%

2022

138

42%

12.1

66.1%

8.0

Wanda

7.5%

2020

326

51%

19.8

61.8%

12.3

Proaxsis

15.0%

2020

47

50%

15.6

54.0%

8.4

Glycotest

20.0%

2021

113

50%

15.4

66.7%

10.3

PDS

10.0%

2022

270

56%

35.1

13.1%

4.6

Total

 

 

 

 

 

 

43.5

Net cash and equivalents (H118) (£m)

7.1

Total firm value (£m)

50.6

Total shares (m)

78.6

Value per share (p)

64

Source: NetScientific reports, Edison Investment Research

Financials

NetScientific reported revenue of £0.13m in H118, down from £0.16m in H117. R&D came in at £1.9m, down 36.1% compared to H117, but down only 8.8% compared to H217. SG&A expense fell 22.3% to £2.3m compared to the same period a year ago, but was up 1.2% sequentially. Loss from operations was £4.6m, down 24.8% compared to H117. We are lowering our 2018 revenue forecasts to £0.4m from £1.9m and our 2019 revenue forecasts to £2.3m from £4.1m, as we take a more conservative view of the revenue ramp for some of the portfolio companies and the revenue run rate is somewhat lower than we would have expected. In addition, we have lowered our 2018 R&D estimate by £2.3m, but have left our 2019 estimate unchanged. We believe an acceleration of SG&A spending will be necessary to drive revenue growth, so we have increased our 2019 SG&A expectations by £2.6m

Cash as of 30 June was £7.1m, and we estimate that the company will need to raise additional funds in the next six months. We record a financing shortfall as £5.8m in illustrative debt in 2018, which could be reduced by successful Series A financings. We also currently estimate the need to raise an additional £10m in 2019 and £5m in 2020 (up from £5m in each year).

Exhibit 2: Financial summary

£'000s

2016

2017

2018e

2019e

Year end 31 December

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

518

386

377

2,295

Cost of Sales

(255)

(245)

(188)

(653)

Gross Profit

263

141

188

1,642

Research and development

(7,443)

(5,177)

(4,924)

(5,114)

Selling, general & administrative

(5,001)

(5,281)

(5,570)

(8,301)

EBITDA

 

 

(12,570)

(10,814)

(11,347)

(12,019)

Operating Profit (before amort. and except.)

(12,429)

(10,593)

(11,101)

(11,773)

Intangible Amortisation

0

0

0

0

Exceptionals/Other

(666)

0

0

0

Operating Profit

(13,095)

(10,593)

(11,101)

(11,773)

Net Interest

86

1,058

29

(1,586)

Other (change in fair value of warrants)

(49)

(45)

0

0

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

(12,343)

(9,535)

(11,072)

(13,359)

Profit Before Tax (IFRS)

 

 

(13,058)

(9,580)

(11,072)

(13,359)

Tax

(18)

202

22

281

Deferred tax

0

0

0

0

Profit After Tax (norm)

(12,361)

(9,333)

(11,050)

(13,079)

Profit After Tax (IFRS)

(13,076)

(9,378)

(11,050)

(13,079)

Minority interest

1,881

1,060

4,647

3,393

Profit After Tax after minority interest (FRS 3)

(11,195)

(8,318)

(6,403)

(9,686)

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

51.1

61.0

75.8

78.6

EPS - normalised (p)

 

 

(20.6)

(13.6)

(8.5)

(12.3)

EPS - IFRS (p)

 

 

(21.9)

(13.6)

(8.5)

(12.3)

Dividend per share (p)

0

0

0

0

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

4,054

3,805

7,734

9,867

Intangible Assets

0

0

0

0

Tangible Assets

779

891

1,058

1,211

Other

3,275

2,914

6,676

8,656

Current Assets

 

 

11,034

7,968

7,064

3,801

Stocks

0

86

331

287

Debtors

1,578

1,014

1,057

229

Cash

9,456

6,868

5,676

3,285

Other

0

0

0

0

Current Liabilities

 

 

(2,172)

(905)

(1,112)

(2,646)

Creditors

(2,044)

(777)

(978)

(2,512)

Short term borrowings

(128)

(128)

(134)

(134)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(80)

(70)

(5,864)

(15,864)

Long term borrowings

(80)

(70)

(5,864)

(15,864)

Other long term liabilities

0

0

0

0

Net Assets

 

 

12,836

10,798

7,822

(4,842)

Minority Interest

(3,875)

(4,573)

(9,220)

(12,613)

Shareholder Equity

 

 

8,961

6,225

(1,398)

(17,455)

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

(12,939)

(10,479)

(11,251)

(8,706)

Net Interest

43

(11)

(13)

(1,586)

Tax

112

(131)

24

281

Capex

(457)

(399)

(399)

(399)

Acquisitions/disposals

(1,261)

1,310

0

(1,980)

Financing

0

8,083

5,000

0

Dividends

0

0

0

0

Other

66

(574)

0

0

Net Cash Flow

(14,436)

(2,201)

(6,639)

(12,391)

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

(23,189)

(9,248)

(6,670)

322

HP finance leases initiated

0

0

0

0

Exchange rate movements

(603)

387

0

0

Other

1,098

(764)

(353)

0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

(9,248)

(6,670)

322

12,714

Source: NetScientific reports, Edison Investment Research

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London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

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United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

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Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

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NSW 2000, Australia

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Pty Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2018 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by NetScientific and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Myonlineadvisers Pty Ltd (AFSL: 427484)) and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2018. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Research: Industrials

Norcros — Positive progress in H1

The Norcros H119 pre-close update reiterated management’s expectations for progress in FY19. Trading newsflow was similar to that reported in Q1 – with a good uplift to UK EBIT anticipated for H119 and a growing South African top-line – albeit with an implicitly slightly quieter second quarter. Brand presence, coupled with product and channel diversity, appears to be supporting ongoing progress in variable market conditions. Our estimates are unchanged and H119 results are scheduled for 15 November.

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