SenSen Networks — North American expansion boosts cash receipts

SenSen Networks (ASX: SNS)

Last close As at 28/03/2024

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Research: TMT

SenSen Networks — North American expansion boosts cash receipts

SenSen Networks (SNS) started its new fiscal year with robust cash receipts of A$2.6m, climbing 39% y-o-y. Boosted by multiple contract wins across the globe, management reported annual recurring revenues (ARR) of A$7.6m. Furthermore, management expects to approach an ARR of about A$10m by the end of FY23, and the A$600k from recently announced North American contracts should support that effort. SNS will also be implementing A$1.1m in annual savings starting in the current quarter to improve cash flows. These factors support our forecasts, and if SenSen continues driving ARR growth across multiple geographies and improves liquidity, we believe it could narrow the valuation gap versus its peers.

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TMT

SenSen Networks

International and domestic wins lift cash receipts

Q123 activity report

Software and comp services

7 November 2022

Price

A$0.07

Market cap

A$45m

US$0.64/A$

Pro forma net cash (A$m) at 30 September 2022 (including leases)

0.8

Shares in issue

651.1m

Free float

45%

Code

SNS

Primary exchange

ASX

Secondary exchange

OTCQB

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(17.1)

(30.0)

(53.3)

Rel (local)

(21.7)

(28.5)

(48.9)

52-week high/low

A$0.16

A$0.06

Business description

SenSen Networks, an Australian-based technology company, operates in the field of sensor artificial intelligence. By applying its SenDISA AI platform to physical space monitoring, it extracts real-time insights for customers. It provides solutions to customers in the smart city, gaming, retail and surveillance verticals.

Next events

Q223 quarterly activities report

January 2023

Analysts

Ken Mestemacher, CFA

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Dan Ridsdale

+44 (0)20 3077 5729

SenSen Networks is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

SenSen Networks (SNS) started its new fiscal year with robust cash receipts of A$2.6m, climbing 39% y-o-y. Boosted by multiple contract wins across the globe, management reported annual recurring revenues (ARR) of A$7.6m. Furthermore, management expects to approach an ARR of about A$10m by the end of FY23, and the A$600k from recently announced North American contracts should support that effort. SNS will also be implementing A$1.1m in annual savings starting in the current quarter to improve cash flows. These factors support our forecasts, and if SenSen continues driving ARR growth across multiple geographies and improves liquidity, we believe it could narrow the valuation gap versus its peers.

Year end

Revenue
(A$m)

Adjusted EBITDA* (A$m)

PBT**
(A$m)

EPS**

(c)

P/sales

(x)

Net cash***

(A$m)

06/21

5.5

(2.2)

(3.0)

(0.62)

8.1

3.9

06/22

9.1

(7.8)

(12.3)

(2.02)

4.9

3.9

06/23e

15.5

(2.8)

(5.6)

(0.83)

2.9

2.5

06/24e

23.5

3.2

0.4

0.05

1.9

3.5

Note: *Adjusted EBITDA excludes non-cash share-based payments. **PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, other income and exceptional

items. ***Net cash is cash less debt and including leases.

International and domestic contract wins

SenSen made progress in its expansion plans both internationally and domestically as it continued its transition to a ‘pragmatic SaaS’ model. The North American wins included Vancouver and Abbotsford, BC, multiple hospital chains and school districts across the United States, and a rollout in the Las Vegas Airport. Asian wins included expansion in Solaire Casino in the Philippines and two projects in the Port of Singapore. Domestically, SNS has projects underway with multiple Australian city councils, and continued its roll-out across the retail fuel market, with about 430 locations using SenSen’s solutions.

Q123: Cash receipts growth and favourable FX rates

SenSen reported a seventh consecutive period of year-on-year cash receipt growth, with cash receipts climbing 39% to A$2.6m. FX movements also affected Q123’s results, as the Australian dollar (which SenSen reports in) was materially weaker against the US dollar (ie the Australian dollar depreciated 6.9% q-o-q versus the US dollar). The company reported gross Q123 cash and equivalents of A$3.2m and we estimate net cash of A$0.8m (including leases).

Valuation: Growth potential not being captured

SenSen’s shares, down 54% year-to-date, trade at a 1.9x FY24e price/revenue multiple, a discount to its peers despite the company’s higher expected growth rates, though some of the gap could be due to the company’s liquidity situation. Using the peer average price/sales multiple of 3.9x suggests a share price of A$0.14, a potential upside of 102%. If SenSen can continue its momentum in wins across the globe and improve cash flows and liquidity (as the current level is only about six months at the Q123 cash burn rate), we expect the gap could narrow.

Contract wins across the globe drive results

Boosted by multiple contract wins across the globe in Q123, management reported ARR of about A$7.6m. Furthermore, management expects to approach ARR of about A$10m by the end of FY23, and a minimum of A$600k from recently announced North American contract wins should support that effort. Notable deals include Smart City customer Vancouver, the City of Abbotsford in British Columbia, and several new orders for security operations and safety solutions from leading hospital chains and school districts in the United States. The security and safety wins illustrate SenSen’s expansion into the healthcare and education sectors, where its analytics platform gathers data from a network of sensors and enables hospital and university asset managers to optimise the safety and security of patients and students, respectively.

Altogether, the numerous contract wins, along with recent deployments in Illinois, California, Pennsylvania and Oklahoma, reflect how SenSen’s land-and-expand sales strategy continues building momentum in North America. SNS’s approach is to start by addressing one or more issues with a customer, with the expectation that as the client sees the value of the company’s SenDISA platform, it would naturally lead to expanding the platform into other use cases and solutions.

SenSen also won contracts across multiple use cases in Asia and Australia. In the Philippines, Solaire Casino further expanded its usage of SenSen’s gaming table solution, while in Singapore, two projects for the Port of Singapore are underway. Management expects that successful completion of these projects would lead to further projects at the Port Authority of Singapore. SenSen also reported progress in the Australian city council projects won near the close of FY22, including Adelaide, Cockburn, Mackay, Toowoomba and others. Furthermore, the company is in discussions with existing and new city council customers across Australia regarding SenSen’s solutions. In the Australian fuel retail segment, SenSen continued its rollout, with about 430 locations now using the company’s solutions.

Cash receipts and favourable FX movements

In Q123, the company reported A$2.6m in cash receipts, up from Q122’s A$1.8m. This result is SenSen’s second highest ever quarterly collection, after Q422’s A$3.7m (see Exhibit 1). Net cash used in operating activities was A$2.8m, up A$1.0m y-o-y due to investments in sales and marketing and R&D to support growth. Net cash used in investing and financing activities were modest at A$70k and A$186k, respectively.

Exhibit 1: Quarterly cash receipts from customers (A$k)

Source: SenSen Networks, Edison Investment Research

FX movements also affected Q123’s results, as the Australian dollar (which SenSen reports in) was materially weaker against the US dollar (the Australian dollar depreciated 6.9% q-o-q vs the US dollar). Consequentially, the North American contracts provided foreign currency revenues that helped insulate SenSen from increases in foreign currency inputs. In the event the Australian dollar depreciates further against the US dollar, future wins in the region and the associated foreign currency revenues should leverage the favourable FX movements.

Cash conservation and reaching cash flow positivity by FY24

SenSen ended the quarter with a cash balance of A$3.2m, down from Q422’s A$6.2m, and unused finance facilities of A$1.8m. We estimate that SNS has about A$0.8m in net cash (including leases) as of 30 September.

In a previous note, we discussed SenSen’s expense reduction efforts and the drive towards cash flow positivity. Recognising the importance of conserving cash in the current inflationary environment (above 7% in Australia), management continued focusing its attention on cost control and reaching positive cash flow. The company streamlined its operations under a single platform strategy and focused its efforts on those with a direct short- to medium-term revenue opportunity, putting long-term projects on hold. SenSen also removed redundant staffing positions, which should deliver about A$1.1m in annual savings for about A$0.1m in one-off costs, as part of the previously announced A$2.5m planned reduction in operating costs. Moreover, the company is investigating various working capital facilities to close the timing gap between ordering equipment, customer billing and payment collection. Consequently, management expects to be cash neutral over the period between now and the end of FY23.

As a result of SenSen’s cost-saving efforts, the company believes that its cost base is relatively fixed and does not expect it to materially increase. We recognise that macro issues and higher inflation could increase input prices, but we believe these cost-saving efforts should help offset rising costs. Furthermore, many of SenSen’s newer contracts contain escalation clauses that pass through higher input prices.

At the current levels of operating cash burn and funding available, management estimates it has about 1.8 quarters worth of funding available. As such, we continue to assume a A$2m equity raise in FY23 to maintain a minimum level of cash. SenSen expects to move into cash flow positivity and profitability shortly after the end of FY23. We thus anticipate free cash flow reaching positive levels by FY24, lessening the need for future capital raises to fund operations.

Valuation

SenSen’s shares are down 54% year-to-date, similar to its peer group of small cap AI and SaaS, and vision analytics firms, which are down an average of 48%. The company trades at a 1.9x FY24e price/revenue multiple, a discount to its peers (see Exhibit 2) despite the company’s higher expected growth rates (see Exhibit 3), though some of the gap could be due to the company’s liquidity situation. Using the peer average price/sales multiple of 3.9x suggests a share price of A$0.14, a potential upside of 102%. If SenSen can continue its momentum in contract wins across the globe and improve cash flows and liquidity, we expect the gap could narrow.

Exhibit 2: Price/revenue multiple versus peer groups

Exhibit 3: Growth estimates for FY1e and FY2e

Source: Edison Investment Research, Refinitiv. Note: Multiples are medians for peer group. Pricing as of 1 November 2022.

Source: Edison Investment Research, Refinitiv, company websites. Note: Peer forecasts are consensus, SenSen’s forecast is Edison’s. Estimates as of 1 November 2022.

Exhibit 2: Price/revenue multiple versus peer groups

Source: Edison Investment Research, Refinitiv. Note: Multiples are medians for peer group. Pricing as of 1 November 2022.

Exhibit 3: Growth estimates for FY1e and FY2e

Source: Edison Investment Research, Refinitiv, company websites. Note: Peer forecasts are consensus, SenSen’s forecast is Edison’s. Estimates as of 1 November 2022.


Exhibit 4: Financial summary

A$000s

2020

2021

2022

2023e

2024e

Year end 30 June

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

3,764

5,533

9,145

15,500

23,500

Cost of Sales

(997)

(2,030)

(3,513)

(4,683)

(6,455)

Gross Profit

2,766

3,503

5,633

10,817

17,045

Other Income

1,539

2,807

2,978

3,275

3,603

Operating expenses (not including share-based payments)

(7,567)

(9,078)

(17,330)

(17,950)

(18,561)

Share-based payments (non-cash)

(290)

(72)

(3,173)

(1,500)

(1,500)

EBITDA

(2,807)

(2,209)

(7,751)

(2,779)

3,199

Operating Profit (before except.)

(3,534)

(2,835)

(12,038)

(5,349)

596

Exceptionals

(18)

(6)

145

(9)

(9)

Operating Profit (EBIT)

(3,552)

(2,840)

(11,893)

(5,357)

587

Net Interest

(138)

(176)

(254)

(237)

(162)

Other

-

-

-

-

-

Profit Before Tax (norm)

(3,672)

(3,011)

(12,292)

(5,586)

434

Profit Before Tax (reported)

(3,690)

(3,016)

(12,300)

(5,594)

425

Tax

(15)

(6)

8

(34)

(85)

Other

-

-

-

-

-

Profit After Tax (norm)

(3,687)

(3,016)

(12,284)

(5,619)

349

Profit After Tax (reported)

(3,705)

(3,022)

(12,292)

(5,628)

340

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

436

484

608

678

721

EPS - normalised (c)

(0.85)

(0.62)

(2.02)

(0.83)

0.05

EPS - reported (c)

(0.85)

(0.62)

(2.02)

(0.83)

0.05

Dividend per share (c)

-

-

-

-

-

 

 

Gross Margin (%)

73.5%

63.3%

61.6%

69.8%

72.5%

EBITDA Margin (%)

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

13.6%

Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

2.5%

 

 

BALANCE SHEET

 

 

Fixed Assets

790

2,168

9,127

8,733

8,319

Intangible Assets

-

1,300

8,281

7,681

7,081

Tangible Assets

353

391

435

641

827

Other

437

477

410

410

410

Current Assets

4,706

8,022

11,391

11,570

11,967

Stocks

803

241

232

232

232

Debtors

744

979

1,943

3,000

4,400

Cash & cash equivalents

2,463

5,176

6,214

5,336

4,333

Other

696

1,625

3,002

3,002

3,002

Current Liabilities

(4,498)

(3,640)

(7,999)

(10,060)

(8,237)

Creditors

(1,095)

(750)

(1,239)

(2,500)

(2,000)

Short term borrowings

(1,313)

(861)

(1,954)

(2,454)

(454)

Lease Liabilities

(235)

(306)

(185)

(185)

(185)

Other

(1,856)

(1,723)

(4,621)

(4,920)

(5,597)

Long Term Liabilities

(276)

(244)

(506)

(508)

(510)

Long term borrowings

-

-

-

-

-

Lease Liabilities

(197)

(138)

(183)

(183)

(183)

Other long term liabilities

(79)

(106)

(324)

(325)

(327)

Net Assets

721

6,305

12,012

9,734

11,539

Minority Interests

-

-

-

-

-

Shareholder equity

721

6,305

12,012

9,734

11,539

 

 

CASH FLOW

 

 

Operating Cash Flow

(2,884)

(3,250)

(7,632)

(2,502)

1,935

Net Interest

(42)

(127)

(73)

(237)

(162)

Tax

(101)

(31)

(232)

(34)

(85)

Capex

(100)

(253)

(220)

(400)

(400)

Acquisitions/disposals

-

-

(1,010)

-

-

Equity financing

3,329

7,043

9,644

2,070

-

Dividends

-

-

-

-

-

Other*

288

(667)

560

224

(2,290)

Net Cash Flow

490

2,714

1,037

(878)

(1,002)

Opening net debt/(cash) w/o Leases

(648)

(1,150)

(4,315)

(4,259)

(2,881)

HP finance leases initiated

-

-

-

-

-

Exchange rate movements

-

-

-

-

-

Other

12

451

(1,093)

(500)

2,000

Closing net debt/(cash)

(1,150)

(4,315)

(4,259)

(2,881)

(3,879)

Closing net debt/(cash) w/ Leases

(718)

(3,871)

(3,891)

(2,513)

(3,511)

Source: SenSen Networks accounts, Edison Investment Research


General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by SenSen Networks and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by SenSen Networks. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2022 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by SenSen Networks and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by SenSen Networks. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2022 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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Research: Financials

Molten Ventures — NAV reset reflects falls in public markets

In its trading update, Molten Ventures announced that its H123 NAV per share is expected to fall to not less than 830p (H122: 887p), 12% below the FY22 NAV/share of 937p. This corresponds to a 17% fall in gross portfolio value (GPV) on a constant currency basis, a net fall of 12% after reflecting exchange rate gains. In turn, GPV is expected to be not less than £1.45bn (FY22: £1.53bn). The falls in valuation were cushioned by the vast majority (c 90%) of Molten’s holdings being structured as preference shares. The portfolio remains resilient, with average core portfolio revenues growing at more than 70% and well-funded, with over 75% of the core portfolio having more than 18 months’ cash runway. Molten invested £112m in H123, but management expects the rate of investment to slow materially in H223, with FY23 targeted investment of c £150m, implying c £38m of investment in H223. Cash realisations in H123 came to c £13m (H122: £67m), including UiPath and Minit (via Earlybird). Period-end plc cash stood at £28m (FY22: £78m) with £23m of listed assets. The group also has a new £150m debt facility, providing the cash needed to see it through the downturn. Molten trades at 0.44x NAV, below its peers on an average of 0.59x NAV.

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