Thales — Update 24 November 2016

Thales — Update 24 November 2016

Thales

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Thales

The ugly duckling has become a swan

Aerospace & defence

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24 November 2016

Price

€91

Market cap

€19.2bn

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Share details

Code

HO

Listing

Euronext, Paris

Shares in issue

210.9m

Business description

Thales is a global organisation, which supplies electronic systems and software solutions to civil and military customers to perform complex tasks in critical environments, including cyber capabilities. It operates in five key end-markets: transport, civil aerospace, defence, space and security.

Bull

Solid progress towards targeted returns, supported by portfolio M&A activity.

Transport recovery of performance on track.

Defence prospects much improved due to global security tensions.

Bear

Premium rating requires consistent execution of growth plan.

EPS growth may moderate as company moves from performance improvement to growth phase.

Execution risk from technology development and contract management.

Analysts

Alexandra West

+44 (0)20 3077 57 00

Andy Chambers

+44 (0)20 3681 2525

Thales was the ugly duckling of the aerospace & defence sector for many years. However, it delivered organic growth in 2015 for the first time in six years, is closing in on its 9.5-10% EBIT margin target and has won a number of high-value contracts. Its transformation into a swan has seen the stock trading up 32% ytd (vs the SXP -4.5%), on a premium rating of 19.1x FY17e compared to the sector average of 16.5x. Thales’s adaptation into a streamlined, competitive technology company with growing emerging market exposure is well rated, but further catalysts are required.

Tangible progress in emerging markets

Over the past three years Thales has demonstrably grown its emerging market exposure, despite market scepticism about whether this was achievable for the company. Sales to emerging markets (€4bn in FY15) are up 49% since 2012 and have increased as a percentage of sales from 22% to 28%. Emerging market orders have doubled and represented 33% of the FY15 order intake compared to 24% in FY12. Thales has succeeded where some of its peers have failed and credit for this is given in the current share price. Since the Q3 results, Thales has been chosen to supply avionic parts for over 400 new Airbus and Boeing aircraft being supplied to China. This is significant because Chinese airlines are responsible for the majority of the projected civil aerospace fleet growth, so this is a growth market for Thales going forward.

A more streamlined portfolio

On 18 November Thales announced that it is in negotiations with private equity firm Latour Capital to divest its business which provides ticketing and revenue collection for transport operators, as well as tolling and car park management systems. The business only represents 10% of Transport division sales, but this is further evidence that management is committed to streamlining the transport portfolio to focus on its core profitable technologies: rail signalling, and communication and supervision systems. Transport (11% of FY15 group sales) has been a drag on profitability recently, but management maintains that its operational recovery is on track. At 30 June, Thales had net cash of €1.4m so is in a strong position for M&A.

Well rated…further catalysts required

Thales is trading on 19.1x FY17e (falling to 16.7x in FY18E) compared to a sector average of 16.5x. This premium reflects guidance for mid-single digit organic sales growth in FY17 and FY18, accompanied by 150-200bp of margin improvement and an increase in the payout ratio from 35% to 40%. Further catalysts are required; in particular, we look for strong execution and additional export orders.

Consensus estimates

Year
end

Revenue
(€m)

EBIT*
(€m)

EPS
(€)

DPS
(€)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/15

14,063

1,216

3.89

1.13

23.7

1.2

12/16e

14,847

1,332

4.25

1.57

21.7

1.7

12/17e

15,641

1,473

4.81

1.85

19.1

2.0

12/18e

16,403

1,640

5.52

2.10

16.7

2.3

Source: Bloomberg. Note: *Adjusted to include equity affiliates.

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Edison, the investment intelligence firm, is the future of investor interaction with corporates. Our team of over 100 analysts and investment professionals work with leading companies, fund managers and investment banks worldwide to support their capital markets activity. We provide services to more than 400 retained corporate and investor clients from our offices in London, New York, Frankfurt, Sydney and Wellington. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

Disclaimer

Edison, the investment intelligence firm, is the future of investor interaction with corporates. Our team of over 100 analysts and investment professionals work with leading companies, fund managers and investment banks worldwide to support their capital markets activity. We provide services to more than 400 retained corporate and investor clients from our offices in London, New York, Frankfurt, Sydney and Wellington. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2016 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison's solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are "wholesale clients" for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document.
A marketing communication under FCA rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a "personalised service" and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a "class service" provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited ("FTSE") (c) FTSE [2014]. "FTSE(r)" is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE's express written consent.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

Future — Update 24 November 2016

Future

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