17 March 2016

Was there a "plaza" accord after all?.

The strong performance of asset prices in the post-2008 era remains in our view largely attributable to lower than expected growth rates being offset by much looser than expected monetary policy. However, as expressed recently by Bank of England Governor Mark Carney “..we’re coming to the last seconds of central bankers’ fifteen minutes of fame”. If, as we believe, central banks are in the early stages of stepping back from unconventional monetary policy this is likely to have significant implications for asset prices.

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15 February 2017

Yellen’s hawkish testimony: Rate increases ahead.

The strong performance of asset prices in the post-2008 era remains in our view largely attributable to lower than expected growth rates being offset by much looser than expected monetary policy. However, as expressed recently by Bank of England Governor Mark Carney “..we’re coming to the last seconds of central bankers’ fifteen minutes of fame”. If, as we believe, central banks are in the early stages of stepping back from unconventional monetary policy this is likely to have significant implications for asset prices.

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10 February 2016

Yellen's testimony - No change to the Fed's view.

The strong performance of asset prices in the post-2008 era remains in our view largely attributable to lower than expected growth rates being offset by much looser than expected monetary policy. However, as expressed recently by Bank of England Governor Mark Carney “..we’re coming to the last seconds of central bankers’ fifteen minutes of fame”. If, as we believe, central banks are in the early stages of stepping back from unconventional monetary policy this is likely to have significant implications for asset prices.

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30/03/2017
Equity strategy and market outlook - March 2017

In this month’s strategy piece, Alastair George believes that it is time to move back to a cautious rather than outright bearish position on global equity markets as both the Fed rate increase this month and the evident difficulties of implementing Trump’s policy agenda were relatively easily absorbed by markets, suggesting a degree of support at current levels in the short term at least. Nevertheless, strong survey data and equity market prices remain at odds with much more modest improvements in hard economic data and earnings forecasts; he therefore remains cautious on equities for the medium term.

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