17 October 2016

Sterling: Lower for longer as the EU strikes back.

A tactical blunder does not mean the end of Brexit or the Conservative administration

UK PM Theresa May’s strategy of consolidating power when the Labour opposition was seemingly in disarray and the Conservative poll lead unassailable has seriously backfired. The likelihood now is that the UK will be governed by a minority Conservative administration with support from the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP). May’s future as leader of the Conservative party remains in serious doubt following a number of campaign mistakes, not least the failure to recognise importance of appeasing the older voter. Much now remains open for debate over the next few weeks.

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9 June 2017

UK election: Another step-up in political risk.

A tactical blunder does not mean the end of Brexit or the Conservative administration

UK PM Theresa May’s strategy of consolidating power when the Labour opposition was seemingly in disarray and the Conservative poll lead unassailable has seriously backfired. The likelihood now is that the UK will be governed by a minority Conservative administration with support from the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP). May’s future as leader of the Conservative party remains in serious doubt following a number of campaign mistakes, not least the failure to recognise importance of appeasing the older voter. Much now remains open for debate over the next few weeks.

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RSS - Strategic Insight
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*Multiple Sectors
30/11/2017
Equity strategy and market outlook November 2017

In this month’s strategy piece, Alastair George believes that, in hindsight, we have been over-cautious in our strategic views during 2017 as equity market performance has been strong, despite the starting point of extended valuation multiples and progressively tighter monetary policy in the US at least. However, even a cautious strategy would have generated returns significantly above cash during the year. While we take no view on the outlook for the bitcoin price due to its speculative nature, we do see the coalescing of a significant amount of capital and infrastructure around blockchain technologies as a very important development. There are potentially disruptive implications for the conventional finance sector over the medium term as there is now an established network effect within the digital finance community. For the traditional finance industry, the risk is that the genie is already out of the bottle. There is no change to our strategic view as we continue to believe a cautious outlook is warranted for developed markets on the basis of valuations. However, recent economic surprise is increasingly positive and credit conditions are loose. Therefore a major fracture in markets in the near term remains unlikely in our view. We continue to believe that, as we may be late in the cycle, investors should combine a relatively modest level of market exposure with only carefully selected equities.

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