20 March 2018

Social Media’s Dieselgate?.

The risks include fines, increased regulation and a change in consumer preferences

The recent controversy over social media and the use of its user data is likely to persist. Many users may not understand that researchers can accurately profile individuals on something as simple as their Facebook “likes”. The potential for influencing in subtle ways both consumption and more controversially political behaviours through targeted advertising should be clear. Multiple investigations across jurisdictions may now cast a harsh light on business practices which may otherwise have continued under the radar. Global digital titans which have become in effect brokers of user data are therefore under threat on another front, in addition to a recently proposed digital revenue tax.

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9 June 2017

UK election: Another step-up in political risk.

A tactical blunder does not mean the end of Brexit or the Conservative administration

UK PM Theresa May’s strategy of consolidating power when the Labour opposition was seemingly in disarray and the Conservative poll lead unassailable has seriously backfired. The likelihood now is that the UK will be governed by a minority Conservative administration with support from the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP). May’s future as leader of the Conservative party remains in serious doubt following a number of campaign mistakes, not least the failure to recognise importance of appeasing the older voter. Much now remains open for debate over the next few weeks.

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17 October 2016

Sterling: Lower for longer as the EU strikes back.

The UK’s new Prime Minister Theresa May’s honeymoon period is clearly over. Days after emphasising the importance of national sovereignty and appearing to lean towards a ‘hard’ Brexit, a dawn raid on sterling and subsequent weakness has given opponents ammunition to attack the UK’s plan to leave the EU. Furthermore, tough talk from the UK government has been reciprocated from EU leaders and European heads of state. President of the European Council Donald Tusk may even have given the game away by linking the concept of a ‘hard’ Brexit to ‘no Brexit’. For sterling, we believe investors should look through the politics and focus on the economics.

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RSS - Strategic Insight
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*Multiple Sectors
26/04/2018
Equity strategy and market outlook - April 2018

In this month’s strategy piece, Alastair George believes that with output gaps closed future monetary and wage growth developments offer only headwinds, both for markets and levels of corporate profitability over coming quarters. Uncertainty in respect of US trade policy risks a chilling of corporate optimism, leading to a shortfall in business investment and short-term economic momentum even if the probability of an all-out trade war remains remote. After the modest falls from the market highs recorded in January, global equities remain expensive compared to historical valuation levels, according to our estimates. Record profit margins also face risks from developments in trade policy and tightening labour markets. With Fed policy clearly remaining on a tightening track, we stick with our cautious view on global equity markets.

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