31 October 2016

BOE leadership: Carney's conundrum.

Relief rally follows 1st round vote which puts Le Pen against a moderate

If last year was the year investors were caught out by misleading polls, today’s market action suggests that investors are being caught out by mistrusting them. A collapse in near-term euro volatility, sharply higher equity markets and a compression in the spread between French and German government bonds emphasises the relief that Le Pen was not in a run-off with a far left-wing candidate.

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4 November 2016

BOE: Bank on track.

Relief rally follows 1st round vote which puts Le Pen against a moderate

If last year was the year investors were caught out by misleading polls, today’s market action suggests that investors are being caught out by mistrusting them. A collapse in near-term euro volatility, sharply higher equity markets and a compression in the spread between French and German government bonds emphasises the relief that Le Pen was not in a run-off with a far left-wing candidate.

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22 November 2016

Earnings revisions: Gap widens between U.S. equities and earnings forecasts.

Relief rally follows 1st round vote which puts Le Pen against a moderate

If last year was the year investors were caught out by misleading polls, today’s market action suggests that investors are being caught out by mistrusting them. A collapse in near-term euro volatility, sharply higher equity markets and a compression in the spread between French and German government bonds emphasises the relief that Le Pen was not in a run-off with a far left-wing candidate.

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24 April 2017

French Election: Is populism already passé?.

Relief rally follows 1st round vote which puts Le Pen against a moderate

If last year was the year investors were caught out by misleading polls, today’s market action suggests that investors are being caught out by mistrusting them. A collapse in near-term euro volatility, sharply higher equity markets and a compression in the spread between French and German government bonds emphasises the relief that Le Pen was not in a run-off with a far left-wing candidate.

Read more...
17 October 2016

Sterling: Lower for longer as the EU strikes back.

Relief rally follows 1st round vote which puts Le Pen against a moderate

If last year was the year investors were caught out by misleading polls, today’s market action suggests that investors are being caught out by mistrusting them. A collapse in near-term euro volatility, sharply higher equity markets and a compression in the spread between French and German government bonds emphasises the relief that Le Pen was not in a run-off with a far left-wing candidate.

Read more...
1 September 2016

UK economy and corporate profits: Refusing to follow forecasts.

Relief rally follows 1st round vote which puts Le Pen against a moderate

If last year was the year investors were caught out by misleading polls, today’s market action suggests that investors are being caught out by mistrusting them. A collapse in near-term euro volatility, sharply higher equity markets and a compression in the spread between French and German government bonds emphasises the relief that Le Pen was not in a run-off with a far left-wing candidate.

Read more...
RSS - Strategic Insight
Sector report cover
10/01/2018
Equity strategy and market outlook January 2018

In this month’s strategy piece, Alastair George believes that 2018 is likely to be a year of two halves for global equity markets. Initially, strong economic momentum and investor sentiment is likely to prevail over the negatives of high valuations and continued monetary tightening. However, the delayed impact of tighter policy in 2017 and further tightening in 2018 appears to be a strong headwind to further equity performance from mid-year. He notes that output gaps in developed markets have now closed, in aggregate, for the first time since 2009. This is a structural change from the slack environment which persisted following the financial crisis of 2008-09 and investors should therefore consider sector allocations carefully. In his view, equity portfolios should now be tilted towards sectors which have offered a degree of resilience and a better risk/reward in the past. Specific growth or event-driven situations should also be favoured over broad market exposure, as developed market price/book valuations as a whole remain unappealing.

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